Professional wrestling creates an unusual situation for gambling regulation. The audience may not know who will win a match, but somewhere inside the production the intended result already exists. The uncertainty is therefore different from the uncertainty surrounding an ordinary sporting contest.
That distinction matters legally. Nevada, for example, defines a wager in NRS 463.01962 as money or value risked on an occurrence whose outcome is uncertain. A scripted wrestling match tests the meaning of that requirement because the outcome can be unknown to the public while already being known to a small group of people.
The central question is not simply whether viewers can predict the result. It is whether a market can remain credible when confidential information about that result exists before wagering begins.
State rules do not treat scripted events alike
There is no single US rule governing wagers on entertainment events. State authorities decide which events can be offered, and predetermined outcomes can fall outside what some jurisdictions are prepared to approve.
In jurisdictions where a bet on an entertainment event is permitted at all, availability depends on the rules of the relevant state rather than on the event simply being offered elsewhere.
Colorado provides one of the clearest examples. In March 2023, the Colorado Division of Gaming said it had neither considered nor discussed allowing wagers on WWE matches. It added that wagers on fixed or predetermined outcomes are prohibited under state law, a restriction it said also applied to the Academy Awards.
Resistance was not limited to Colorado. Indiana said at the time that it had no interest in approving wagers on scripted events, while authorities in states including Arizona, Iowa and Washington also identified legal or regulatory barriers to predetermined wrestling outcomes.
WWE tried to control access to the result
The most revealing example came in 2023, when WWE explored whether tighter controls over its scripts could make wagering on selected matches possible.
According to CNBC’s original reporting, WWE worked with accounting firm EY on a system intended to keep selected match results confidential. The proposal was designed to address the central issue: if a result exists in advance, confidence depends heavily on keeping that information within a tightly controlled group.
The model drew on awards ceremonies. Accounting firms have long handled confidential results for events such as the Academy Awards, where only a small number of people know the winners before the public announcement.
The proposed wrestling system would have gone further. Reports said selected finishes could be locked in months ahead, while performers and much of the production team would not learn the outcome until shortly before the event.
Colorado’s response showed the limits of that approach. Its gaming authority said it was not considering WWE wagering and emphasized that fixed or predetermined outcomes remained prohibited regardless of the proposed confidentiality arrangements.
Confidentiality does not change the nature of the outcome
Using an independent accounting firm could reduce the number of people with advance knowledge. It does not change the fact that somebody must know the result before the event happens.
That leaves several questions around access to confidential information. Confidence depends on who knows the finish, how that knowledge is restricted and whether changes to the planned result can be documented without undermining the process.
Leaks matter for the same reason. A leaked sporting tactic still leaves the competition to be played. A leaked scripted finish can reveal the intended result before the performers enter the ring.
The difference is fundamental. In competitive sport, uncertainty comes from what happens during the contest. In scripted wrestling, much of the public uncertainty comes from not knowing a decision that has already been made behind the scenes.
The Academy Awards comparison only goes so far
The Oscars offer a useful comparison because their winners are also confidential before the public announcement. PwC has traditionally been responsible for safeguarding the voting results until the ceremony, which helped make awards events part of WWE’s argument in 2023.
But the similarity has limits.
An award winner is determined through a voting process and then concealed. A wrestling finish is deliberately written as part of the production. That places the organisation staging the event much closer to the creation of the outcome itself.
Keeping information secret is therefore only one part of the question. The other is whether a deliberately predetermined result fits the requirements normally applied to an event offered for wagering.
Nevada’s definition of a wager illustrates the distinction. The public may experience uncertainty, yet the event itself does not necessarily have an uncertain result in the same sense as a competitive match.
Predetermined finishes add another layer
Scripted wrestling can also produce ambiguous outcomes. Matches may involve disqualifications, restarts or changes announced during a broadcast. Those situations can create disputes over what should count as the final result even without any leak of confidential information.
That helps explain why scripted wrestling sits apart from conventional sport. Its entertainment value depends partly on concealing a result that has already been chosen, while wagering depends on confidence in both the event and the information surrounding it.
The WWE proposal in 2023 showed one possible attempt to bridge that gap by restricting knowledge of the finish. The responses from several US states showed why secrecy alone does not settle the question.
US sports-wagering rules vary by state, including minimum-age requirements; 21 is the minimum in most states. Anyone concerned about their gambling can contact the National Council on Problem Gambling’s National Problem Gambling Helpline.
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